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M. Stultz, “Sanctions, Models of Change, and South Africa,” South Africa International 13 (1982), pp. 121–9. 2. Chien-pin Li, “The Effectiveness of Sanction Linkages: Issues and Actors, International Studies Quarterly 3 (1993), pp. 349–70: 353. 3. D. A. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1985), pp. 118–30. Baldwin argues that decision makers ought to consider costs, risks, and benefits but rarely do so in a precise manner. Also see B. Jentleson, Pipeline Politics: The Complex Political Economy of East–West Energy Trade (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1986), p.

40 Other potential norm violators may also think twice about committing violations in the future if they know that members of the international community are likely to impose credible sanctions. Thus, short-term costs to sanctioners may have substantial longterm benefit. 41 Multinational corporations, private black-market merchants, commodity intermediaries, and non-embargoing states often profit from supplying resources and expertise. Sanctions may even generate new economic opportunities if, for example, a corporation leaves the target and relocates in a neighboring state.

The political fracture model also emphasizes that sanctions may cause so much economic pain, or call into question the government’s ability to handle the economy, that populations rebel. 29 It is not surprising then that sanctioned economies may, usually with state assistance, pursue import substitution. At least in the short term, import substitution can work quite well and actually strengthen the state. Perhaps because of its focus on negative consequences, the sanctions literature has tended to emphasize inefficiencies and job losses due to sanctions but underplays the extent to which the number of jobs in some sectors may actually increase.

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